“Whoever speaks of Europe is wrong, it is a geographical expression”.
~Otto Von Bismarck
Europe is often described as a “peninsula of peninsulas” bordered by the Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean, and the Mediterranean, Black, and Caspian seas. The continent of Europe is considered to be the birthplace of democracy, western civilization, and the first human beings. Europe’s long history and economic advancements have been shaped by its politics and geography which include the internal and external relationships between governments, territories, and citizens. Within Europe, several countries have a lot in common, and others that have common goals and want to have similar policies and narrow their ties. Others have their own views and prefer to have cooperation or no cooperation at all.
Problems and Challenges of the 20th century
Europe’s early political history can be traced back to the first and the second world war, the global conflicts that defined the century. During the first world war, millions of people died and many more were injured and displaced from their homes. The second world war was even more devastating. It became the most vicious and grueling warfare waged by humans against each other. The second world war contributed to the independence of European colonies throughout the world, and lay waste to the urban infrastructure of many European cities. As a result, Western Europe’s leadership in global politics diminished. The United States began to lead the Western world, while the Soviet Union led the Eastern world. This period of geopolitical tension came to be known as the Cold War. During this period, Berlin was divided between the East and the West, with the Western powers occupying the Western portion and the Soviet Union occupying the Eastern portion. This division was solidified with the construction of a wall known as the Berlin Wall. Later in the 1980s, the economic and political downfall of the Soviet Union led to the end of the Cold War, which was symbolized by the falling of the Berlin Wall in 1989. This event marked the end of the Cold war.
Formation of the European Union (EU)
The Soviet Union was dissolved by the end of 1991. This along with several other socio-economic and political factors led to the formation of the European Union (EU) which was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on November 1, 1993. Europe is now broadly defined in the context of the European Union. The EU aims to create a strong unified structure for the social, environmental, military, and economic policies of its member states.
THE LOOMING CRISIS
The aforementioned heads provide us with a background of Europe and the EU's history. But looming ahead is a crisis, gripping the continent of Europe from all directions. Some of the calamities which Europe is facing include the Russo-Ukraine war, Prime Ministerial misadventures in the UK, acute shortage of energy resources along with the predictions of an economic recession, all of which are briefly discussed in this article.
Armed to the teeth: Russian invasion of Ukraine
The politics and geography of Europe underwent a significant change after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, 2022. Vladimir Putin ended weeks of agonized speculation by announcing a "special military operation". Russian troops entered the country of Ukraine targeting the capital Kyiv and the cities of Kharkiv and Kherson.
The roots of the current crisis stemmed from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine infringes on the security agreements the Soviet Union made upon its breakup in the early ’90s. At the time, Ukraine, which was a former Soviet republic, had the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The US and Russia worked with Ukraine to denuclearize the country. Kyiv gave its hundreds of nuclear warheads back to Russia in exchange for security assurances. But the very premise of a post-Soviet Europe seems to be the underpinning of today’s conflict. Apart from this, Ukraine’s desire to join the NATO forces is another key factor to be taken into consideration. Putin has been fixated on reclaiming some semblance of an empire lost with the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine being central to this vision. Putin has said Russians and Ukrainians “were one people, a single whole,” or at least would be if not for the meddling from outside forces (here: the West) that has created a “wall” between the two. This unfortunate "special operation" waged by Moscow to realize Putin's vision has cast dark shadows over the present as well as the future orientation of Kyiv.
Running out of Gas: Ongoing energy crisis in Europe
“Winter is coming” is a popular phrase from the hit HBO TV series Game of Thrones. It is a euphemism for saying that “troubled times are ahead”. This expression can also be used when talking about the troubled times that Europe will have to face during the winter of 2023 which may extend beyond. Here, the troubles are in the form of an energy crisis. An energy crisis is any significant bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to a country’s economy. It often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, in particular those that supply national electricity grids or those used as fuel in vehicles. The energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing profound and long-lasting changes that have the potential to hasten the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system, The energy crisis is delivering a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity. The biggest tremors have been felt in the markets for natural gas, coal and electricity with significant turmoil observed in oil markets as well. Europe is in a delicate energy position. Its historical reliance on fossil fuels and particularly on Russia as the main exporter of fossil fuels has created a serious supply problem in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Europe must speed up energy efficiency, accelerate the deployment of renewables and heat pumps and reduce gas demand. Because winter is coming, and it’s here to stay.
Truss me bro: Liz Truss and the Growth Plan
The United Kingdom runs off a parliamentary system, which implies that the people of the UK don't vote for the Prime Minister directly, they vote for a local MP, and after that, the number of MPs decides who gets to be the Prime Minister. Effectively, this is the leader of the party with the highest number of seats. If they don't have a general election, the Prime Minister (and thus the governing direction of the UK, as the Prime Minister selects their Cabinet) comes down to however the political parties choose to elect their leader, which isn't set out in the law. This is what happened with Theresa May, with Boris Johnson, and then again with Liz Truss. The choice of Prime Minister isn't necessarily representative of the UK as a whole, with Liz Truss coming in much further to the right (especially in terms of her economic ideology) than a lot of even her Conservative fellow MPs.
Furthermore, Truss proceeded to implement a 'mini-budget' (officially and somewhat optimistically known as 'The Growth Plan') which cut taxes on the very wealthiest in the UK during the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, in which gas and electricity costs were spiraling out of control. Normally a budget like this would be overseen by the Office of Budget Responsibility but because it was classed as a 'financial event' rather than a full budget they never got to provide an analysis of what it might entail.
This later turned out to be a financial disaster. The value of the pound crashed to its lowest point in decades, mortgage interest rates skyrocketed and the UK's pension fund was so close to collapsing that the Bank of England had to step in to buy Government bonds just to shore up the coffers. MPs started to privately call for a resignation, arguing mostly that Liz Truss had damaged the party's reputation even worse than Boris Johnson had, making it all but impossible for them to win at the next elections. Truss had lost the confidence of both her ministers and the general public, This eventually led her to resign from her position just after 45 days after assuming office. Liz Truss now goes into the books as the Prime Minister with the shortest tenure in British History.
Rishi Rich: UK’s new Prime Minister
After the dramatic resignation of Liz Truss, former Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister) Rishi Sunak won the Conservative Party Leadership and became the United Kingdom’s first leader of colour and youngest Prime Minister in 200 years. Sunak is spoken for Akshata Murty, the daughter of Indian billionaire Narayana Murthy. The Sunday Times Rich List estimates Mr and Mrs. Sunak’s fortune to be worth about £730 million. Sunak is also considered to be one of the richest men in Britain and is also the richest member of the British parliament. It is no surprise that Rishi Sunak’s wealth and political influence played a key role in his nomination as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. In his first public speech, Sunak mentioned that “There is no doubt we face a profound economic challenge. We now need stability and unity, and I will make it my utmost priority to bring our party and our country together”.
Money doesn’t grow on trees: Eurozone and Recession
Eurozone (EZ) refers to all those countries of the European Union (EU) that have adopted the Euro as their national currency. According to the projections made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in their World Economic Outlook, The EZ and most EU countries will head to an economic recession. Economic recession refers to a significant, prolonged and widespread decline in economic activity along with a rise in the unemployment rate, While the Russo-Ukraine war takes a rising toll on Europe’s economies, inflation shows little sign of abating. More than half of the countries in the European Union will experience technical recessions, with at least two consecutive quarters of shrinking output followed by people’s shrinking aspirations.
What next?
As we saw its history, a crisis is nothing new to Europe. However, to escape from the current one Europe needs to show the solidarity for which the EU is known. Also, it needs to cut its dependence on Russia, which is in process, by diversifying the supplies, working on energy efficiency, and accelerating the adoption of renewables. In a way, it seems, this crisis has turned Europe's attention to grave issues like climate, sustainability, social crises, etc. and if Europe succeeds to escape this time it will come out much stronger and better than before.
This piece has been authored by Faraz Sarwer of St. Stephen’s College, University of Delhi. The author is a first-year undergraduate pursuing his major in English. His areas of interest include politics, economics, and literature (belles-liters). The article has been edited for brevity and clarity. The views and opinions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors and do not reflect the official position of the Civil Services Forum.
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